Heading into the final three races of the 2004 season, a look at the championship from a “what if” perspective seems appropriate. So with Excel fired up and all the data entered, let’s look at some stats.

Looking back at the season, Wayne Taylor seems to have a statistical advantage on Papis Pruett. Papis/Pruett have averaged a 4th place finish in the first 9 races, however in sprint races they average 5th. Taylor has also averaged 4th overall, but looking at just sprint races, that average goes UP to 3rd. If Papis/Pruett finish their average of 5th for sprint races the final 3 races, and Taylor finishes his average of 3rd, Taylor wins by 4 points.

Now let’s dig into the “what ifs” a little deeper. If Taylor wins the final three races, he’ll win the title. However, 2 wins and 1 second by Taylor (with Papis/Pruett finishing 1st) gives the title to Papis/Pruett by 5 points. In simple terms, if Papis/Pruett finish in the top 5 the final 3 rounds, Taylor must finish at least 2 places ahead of them in 2 of the three events.

What about Andy Wallace? Wallace must rely on others’ misfortune to win the championship, however it wouldn’t take a big hiccup by Taylor and Papis/Pruett. If Wallace wins out, AND Papis/Pruett finish 3rd or worse in 2 of the final 3 races, Wallace wins, no matter what Taylor does. If Wallace wins 2 of the final 3 and Taylor wins the 3rd, Wallace must finish 2nd in that race to win the title in a tiebreaker.

What about the real long shots such as fan favorites Oswaldo Negri and Burt Frisselle? Although mathematically not out of the championship, a minimum of 17 DP’s would have to start the remaining three races for them to finish ahead of Papis/Pruett. Other drivers (such as Theys, Brocheller, Wagner, and Morales) find themselves in similar situations. These drivers will figure into who wins the 2004 title however. No less than 8 cars (being conservative) have recently shown they have what it takes to run up front and have the potential to win. Each of those becomes a spoiler to the drivers contending for the title.

It all adds up to each position, in each of the remaining races, having a big impact on the final outcome. Just one more reason to be glued to the tube for the race or climb in the car and experience the action first hand.

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